Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (61%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Sevilla FC vs. CA Osasuna: Sevilla FC O/U 1.5
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 39¢ · $110 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 33%
$109.7
-$10.65
Research grade
NeutralOver at 39%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 61%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO fooooolCTR | Overavg 45¢ | $100 | $86.67 | -$13.33 | 50% 10147-10036 (20183) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $18.09 | $20.44 | +$2.34 | 49% 11291-11571 (22862) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $2.26 | $2.6 | +$0.34 | 53% 5353-4694 (10047) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.