Spread: Sevilla FC (-2.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold CA Osasuna (83%) · CA Osasuna at 89¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
CA Osasuna
6
CA Osasuna 83%
$3.7K
$124.46
87.8¢ → 88.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralCA Osasuna at 89%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | CA Osasunaavg 90¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$74.81 | 59% 43129-29562 (72691) |
GO GoalLineGhost | CA Osasunaavg 83¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$29.3 | 50% 23388-23002 (46390) |
MI MinevaJ | CA Osasunaavg 83¢ | $162.48 | $182.06 | +$19.58 | 58% 974-714 (1688) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | CA Osasunaavg 89¢ | $33.1 | $34.59 | +$1.49 | 53% 2002-1777 (3779) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | CA Osasunaavg 90¢ | $11.25 | $11.63 | -$0.06 | 57% 26839-19987 (46826) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Sevilla FCavg 20¢ | $1.01 | $0.35 | -$0.65 | 57% 12489-9413 (21902) |
Invested
$2,267.49
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$74.81
Record
59%
43129-29562 (72691)
Invested
$1,060.89
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$29.3
Record
50%
23388-23002 (46390)
Invested
$162.48
Value
$182.06
PnL
+$19.58
Record
58%
974-714 (1688)
Invested
$33.1
Value
$34.59
PnL
+$1.49
Record
53%
2002-1777 (3779)
Invested
$11.25
Value
$11.63
PnL
-$0.06
Record
57%
26839-19987 (46826)
Invested
$1.01
Value
$0.35
PnL
-$0.65
Record
57%
12489-9413 (21902)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.