Spread: Sevilla FC (-1.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold CA Osasuna (71%) · CA Osasuna at 76¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
CA Osasuna
7
CA Osasuna 71%
$3.3K
$26.93
74.1¢ → 75.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralCA Osasuna at 76%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | CA Osasunaavg 74.1¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$8.23 | 60% 40192-26830 (67022) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Sevilla FCavg 25.4¢ | $738.58 | $741.67 | +$3.08 | 51% 22118-21518 (43636) |
CA Cannae | CA Osasunaavg 73.8¢ | $448.21 | $455.58 | +$7.37 | 53% 15316-13530 (28846) |
 0xheavy888 | CA Osasunaavg 74.3¢ | $446 | $453 | +$7 | 56% 6708-5376 (12084) |
 StudyPrediction<$100 | CA Osasunaavg 74¢ | $90.74 | $92.57 | +$1.84 | 53% 4327-3811 (8138) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Sevilla FCavg 26¢ | $12.4 | $11.93 | -$0.48 | 53% 1995-1773 (3768) |
 HRTrading<$100 | CA Osasunaavg 74¢ | $1.11 | $1 | -$0.11 | 55% 2171-1792 (3963) |
Invested
$1,525.47
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$8.23
Record
60%
40192-26830 (67022)
Invested
$738.58
Value
$741.67
PnL
+$3.08
Record
51%
22118-21518 (43636)
Invested
$448.21
Value
$455.58
PnL
+$7.37
Record
53%
15316-13530 (28846)
0xheavy888Invested
$446
Value
$453
PnL
+$7
Record
56%
6708-5376 (12084)
StudyPrediction<$100Invested
$90.74
Value
$92.57
PnL
+$1.84
Record
53%
4327-3811 (8138)
Invested
$12.4
Value
$11.93
PnL
-$0.48
Record
53%
1995-1773 (3768)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.11
Value
$1
PnL
-$0.11
Record
55%
2171-1792 (3963)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.