Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-10-26?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 48¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$7.8K
-$46.35
48¢ → 47.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 48%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR | Noavg 48¢ | $3.5K | $3.4K | -$36.26 | 53% 1987-1734 (3721) |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 52¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$0 | 60% 39852-26467 (66319) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 52¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$15.67 | 51% 21853-21263 (43116) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 48.2¢ | $687.21 | $632.43 | +$4.54 | 58% 37543-27331 (64874) |
FF ff3364CTR | Noavg 48¢ | $274.56 | $274.56 | +$0 | 50% 770-764 (1534) |
KK kkpay19888CTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $83.73 | $84.62 | +$0.89 | 53% 501-436 (937) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Yesavg 51.9¢ | $35.88 | $36.27 | +$0.39 | 53% 15228-13430 (28658) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $23.97 | $23.73 | -$0.24 | 57% 24505-18852 (43357) |
Invested
$3,480.7
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$36.26
Record
53%
1987-1734 (3721)
Invested
$1,693.9
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
39852-26467 (66319)
Invested
$1,630
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$15.67
Record
51%
21853-21263 (43116)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$687.21
Value
$632.43
PnL
+$4.54
Record
58%
37543-27331 (64874)
Invested
$274.56
Value
$274.56
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
770-764 (1534)
Invested
$83.73
Value
$84.62
PnL
+$0.89
Record
53%
501-436 (937)
Invested
$35.88
Value
$36.27
PnL
+$0.39
Record
53%
15228-13430 (28658)
Invested
$23.97
Value
$23.73
PnL
-$0.24
Record
57%
24505-18852 (43357)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.