Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-10-26?

13 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (81%) · No at 79¢ · $23K held · ended Oct 26

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 81%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.1K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

78.9¢ → 78.5¢

+0% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 16 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$19.9K

Total Shares23,357

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$244.24

Total Shares1,145

Combined PnL+$1.46

No — 81%Yes — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 78.4¢	$8.6K	$8.6K	+$75.94	51% 22118-21518 (43636)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 79.1¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	+$25.91	60% 40192-26830 (67022)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 78¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30.04	54% 52380-44285 (96665)
└ No leg	Noavg 78¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$45.06
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21¢	$630.84	$615.82	-$15.02
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 80¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$0	68% 2430-1138 (3568)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 79¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$8.74	50% 9398-9322 (18720)
MI MinevaJ	Noavg 79¢	$4.8K	$712.54	+$1.0K	58% 963-706 (1669)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 78¢	$675.98	$688.89	+$12.9	50% 11018-11200 (22218)
CA Cannae	Noavg 79.5¢	$374.58	$377.07	+$2.5	53% 15316-13530 (28846)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Noavg 78.9¢	$162.34	$103.13	-$1.89	53% 1995-1773 (3768)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$97.5	$95.43	-$2.08	62% 13428-8277 (21705)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$78.53	$80.4	+$1.87	56% 6708-5376 (12084)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 79¢	$76.63	$76.15	-$0.48	55% 2171-1792 (3963)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$66.74	$68.41	+$1.67	50% 9642-9563 (19205)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 78¢	$52.41	$52.82	+$0.41	53% 13206-11687 (24893)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 83¢	$19.86	$18.51	-$1.35	62% 19399-11989 (31388)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 78.5¢	$6.9K	$13.51	+$65.52	58% 37843-27569 (65412)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 81¢	$10	$9.81	-$0.19	67% 22347-10922 (33269)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$8,570.83

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$75.94

Record

51%

22118-21518 (43636)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$5,386.57

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$25.91

Record

60%

40192-26830 (67022)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$2,973.96

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30.04

Record

54%

52380-44285 (96665)

Both legs:

No$2,343.1278¢+$45.06

Yes$630.8421¢-$15.02

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,400

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

68%

2430-1138 (3568)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,340.24

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$8.74

Record

50%

9398-9322 (18720)

MinevaJ

Invested

$4,800.21

Value

$712.54

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

58%

963-706 (1669)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$675.98

Value

$688.89

PnL

+$12.9

Record

50%

11018-11200 (22218)

Cannae

Invested

$374.58

Value

$377.07

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

15316-13530 (28846)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Invested

$162.34

Value

$103.13

PnL

-$1.89

Record

53%

1995-1773 (3768)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$97.5

Value

$95.43

PnL

-$2.08

Record

62%

13428-8277 (21705)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.53

Value

$80.4

PnL

+$1.87

Record

56%

6708-5376 (12084)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$76.63

Value

$76.15

PnL

-$0.48

Record

55%

2171-1792 (3963)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.74

Value

$68.41

PnL

+$1.67

Record

50%

9642-9563 (19205)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$52.41

Value

$52.82

PnL

+$0.41

Record

53%

13206-11687 (24893)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.86

Value

$18.51

PnL

-$1.35

Record

62%

19399-11989 (31388)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$6,919.63

Value

$13.51

PnL

+$65.52

Record

58%

37843-27569 (65412)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$9.81

PnL

-$0.19

Record

67%

22347-10922 (33269)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 16 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.