Sevilla FC leading at halftime?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$83.38

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 100¢

+36% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$946.16

Total Shares1,498

Combined PnL-$86.99

No3 traders

Total Value$350.15

Total Shares946

Combined PnL+$170.37

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 86.3¢	$975.14	$711.51	-$263.63	59% 43129-29562 (72691)
MI MinevaJCTR	Noavg 15¢	$113.31	$279.51	+$166.19	58% 974-714 (1688)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Yesavg 30.5¢	$19.92	$192.53	+$172.61	53% 2002-1777 (3779)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 34.7¢	$62.69	$66.86	+$4.18	50% 31550-31196 (62746)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 51.5¢	$20.23	$24.85	+$4.62	55% 2195-1816 (4011)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$3.96	$9.35	+$0.28	63% 6058-3547 (9605)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$6.44	$6.44	+$0	61% 8719-5662 (14381)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$3.78	$3.78	+$0	43% 2151-2905 (5056)
ZX zxc368<$100	Yesavg 99.9¢	$2.35	$1.48	-$0.87	99% 12306-175 (12481)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$975.14

Value

$711.51

PnL

-$263.63

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

MinevaJCTR

Invested

$113.31

Value

$279.51

PnL

+$166.19

Record

58%

974-714 (1688)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Yes

Invested

$19.92

Value

$192.53

PnL

+$172.61

Record

53%

2002-1777 (3779)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$62.69

Value

$66.86

PnL

+$4.18

Record

50%

31550-31196 (62746)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.23

Value

$24.85

PnL

+$4.62

Record

55%

2195-1816 (4011)

Forecastication2<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.96

Value

$9.35

PnL

+$0.28

Record

63%

6058-3547 (9605)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.44

Value

$6.44

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

8719-5662 (14381)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Invested

$3.78

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

2151-2905 (5056)

zxc368<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.35

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$0.87

Record

99%

12306-175 (12481)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.