Sevilla FC vs. CA Osasuna: Draw at halftime?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 90¢ · $591 held · ended Oct 26

Yes10¢No90¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$591.01

Combined PnL

-$24.85

Smart Money Entry

73.2¢ → 90¢

+23% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$575.41

Total Shares686

Combined PnL-$16.27

Yes3 traders

Total Value$15.6

Total Shares156

Combined PnL-$8.59

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 54¢	$205.62	$300.66	+$5.6	58% 39436-28511 (67947)
ZX zxc368	Noavg 99.9¢	$199.8	$180	-$19.8	99% 12306-175 (12481)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 94¢	$85.54	$81.9	-$3.64	59% 43129-29562 (72691)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 79¢	$11.28	$12.85	+$1.57	59% 29148-19878 (49026)
MI MinevaJCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$19.65	$12.69	-$0.26	58% 974-714 (1688)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 49.3¢	$10.72	$2.17	-$8.54	53% 2002-1777 (3779)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$0.52	$0.74	+$0.22	55% 2195-1816 (4011)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$205.62

Value

$300.66

PnL

+$5.6

Record

58%

39436-28511 (67947)

zxc368

Invested

$199.8

Value

$180

PnL

-$19.8

Record

99%

12306-175 (12481)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$85.54

Value

$81.9

PnL

-$3.64

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$11.28

Value

$12.85

PnL

+$1.57

Record

59%

29148-19878 (49026)

MinevaJCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.65

Value

$12.69

PnL

-$0.26

Record

58%

974-714 (1688)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.72

Value

$2.17

PnL

-$8.54

Record

53%

2002-1777 (3779)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.74

PnL

+$0.22

Record

55%

2195-1816 (4011)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.