Sevilla FC vs. CA Osasuna: 1st Half O/U 1.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 26

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

-$16.98

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 100¢

+22% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares9,896

Combined PnL-$10.48

Over2 traders

Total Value$7.27

Total Shares40

Combined PnL-$6.5

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72	Underavg 87¢	$5.2K	$4.9K	-$300.27	72% 2158-825 (2983)
RN1	Underavg 69.5¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$238.49	54% 54083-45963 (100046)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 75.6¢	$632.75	$691.24	+$58.49	59% 43129-29562 (72691)
MI MinevaJ	Underavg 77.7¢	$615.77	$650.02	+$34.25	58% 974-714 (1688)
ZX zxc368	Underavg 99.9¢	$231.28	$189.84	-$41.44	99% 12306-175 (12481)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Overavg 19.5¢	$42.7	$47.49	+$4.79	49% 11291-11571 (22862)
└ Over leg	Overavg 19.5¢	$26.17	$24.12	-$2.05
└ Under leg	Underavg 58¢	$16.53	$23.37	+$6.84
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$9.87	$4.23	-$5.64	55% 2195-1816 (4011)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 23.1¢	$3.89	$3.04	-$0.86	50% 31550-31196 (62746)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72

Under

Invested

$5,197.44

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$300.27

Record

72%

2158-825 (2983)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,831.21

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$238.49

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$632.75

Value

$691.24

PnL

+$58.49

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

MinevaJ

Under

Invested

$615.77

Value

$650.02

PnL

+$34.25

Record

58%

974-714 (1688)

zxc368

Under

Invested

$231.28

Value

$189.84

PnL

-$41.44

Record

99%

12306-175 (12481)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Over

Invested

$42.7

Value

$47.49

PnL

+$4.79

Record

49%

11291-11571 (22862)

Both legs:

Over$26.1719.5¢-$2.05

Under$16.5358¢+$6.84

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.87

Value

$4.23

PnL

-$5.64

Record

55%

2195-1816 (4011)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.89

Value

$3.04

PnL

-$0.86

Record

50%

31550-31196 (62746)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.