Sevilla FC vs. CA Osasuna: 1st Half O/U 0.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 26

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 57%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

71.5¢ → 100¢

+40% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares4,736

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.27

Total Shares127

Combined PnL-$25.55

Over — 57%Under — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 62¢	$1.9K	$3.0K	+$1.0K	54% 54083-45963 (100046)
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$10.29	99% 12306-175 (12481)
MI MinevaJ	Overavg 63¢	$341.73	$537.31	+$200.74	58% 974-714 (1688)
VA Vampiro1<$100	Overavg 80.5¢	$55.47	$68.2	+$12.73	76% 2919-904 (3823)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$0.64	$0.64	+$0	61% 8719-5662 (14381)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 47.3¢	$15.99	$0.34	-$15.65	50% 31550-31196 (62746)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$10.2	$0.3	-$9.9	63% 6058-3547 (9605)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,914.44

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$1,141.79

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10.29

Record

99%

12306-175 (12481)

MinevaJ

Over

Invested

$341.73

Value

$537.31

PnL

+$200.74

Record

58%

974-714 (1688)

Vampiro1<$100

Over

Invested

$55.47

Value

$68.2

PnL

+$12.73

Record

76%

2919-904 (3823)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.64

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

8719-5662 (14381)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.99

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$15.65

Record

50%

31550-31196 (62746)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.2

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$9.9

Record

63%

6058-3547 (9605)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.