Exact Score: Sevilla FC 1 - 0 CA Osasuna?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 71¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.7K
$6.67
85.7¢ → 71¢
-17% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 85.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$26.73 | 54% 54083-45963 (100046) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 86¢ | $667.79 | $652.26 | -$15.53 | 49% 11291-11571 (22862) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 14.5¢ | $421.49 | $464.63 | +$43.14 | 59% 43129-29562 (72691) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 85.1¢ | $350.5 | $219.61 | +$3.88 | 58% 39436-28511 (67947) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $13.42 | $15.34 | +$1.92 | 50% 10147-10036 (20183) |
RN1Invested
$1,417.65
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$26.73
Record
54%
54083-45963 (100046)
Invested
$667.79
Value
$652.26
PnL
-$15.53
Record
49%
11291-11571 (22862)
Invested
$421.49
Value
$464.63
PnL
+$43.14
Record
59%
43129-29562 (72691)
VeryLucky888Invested
$350.5
Value
$219.61
PnL
+$3.88
Record
58%
39436-28511 (67947)
Invested
$13.42
Value
$15.34
PnL
+$1.92
Record
50%
10147-10036 (20183)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.