Will Sevilla FC vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw?

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 73¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 26

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 53%

Total Value

$18.2K

Combined PnL

$63.35

Smart Money Entry

72¢ → 72.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 17 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares16,749

Combined PnL+$78.1

Yes8 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares21,608

Combined PnL-$14.75

No — 53%Yes — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
us391	Noavg 72¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	-$0	51% 1593-1541 (3134)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 28¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	-$0	60% 40192-26830 (67022)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 72¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$55.24	51% 22118-21518 (43636)
RN1	Noavg 72¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$14.65	54% 52380-44285 (96665)
LU LuzzzerCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$1.0K	$965.52	-$34.48	45% 99-119 (218)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 72¢	$784.41	$789.86	+$5.45	62% 13428-8277 (21705)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 72.5¢	$725	$725	+$0	51% 1114-1067 (2181)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 72¢	$668.88	$673.53	+$4.64	50% 11018-11200 (22218)
StudyPredictionCTR	Yesavg 28¢	$560	$570	+$10	53% 4327-3811 (8138)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$272.19	$277.23	+$5.04	50% 9398-9322 (18720)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 27.2¢	$226.68	$229.28	+$2.6	53% 15316-13530 (28846)
LonnieHawkins<$100	Noavg 74.7¢	$80.2	$78.92	-$1.28	51% 1754-1659 (3413)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$75.85	$77.21	+$1.35	53% 1995-1773 (3768)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$70.62	$73.23	+$1.31	58% 37843-27569 (65412)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$31.64	$31.64	-$0.57	56% 24841-19200 (44041)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 78¢	$10	$9.42	-$0.58	67% 22347-10922 (33269)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 77¢	$0.79	$0.75	-$0.04	62% 19399-11989 (31388)

us391

Invested

$5,035.7

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

1593-1541 (3134)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,828.3

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$0

Record

60%

40192-26830 (67022)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,655.91

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$55.24

Record

51%

22118-21518 (43636)

RN1

Invested

$2,109.6

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$14.65

Record

54%

52380-44285 (96665)

LuzzzerCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$965.52

PnL

-$34.48

Record

45%

99-119 (218)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$784.41

Value

$789.86

PnL

+$5.45

Record

62%

13428-8277 (21705)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$725

Value

$725

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1114-1067 (2181)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$668.88

Value

$673.53

PnL

+$4.64

Record

50%

11018-11200 (22218)

StudyPredictionCTR

Yes

Invested

$560

Value

$570

PnL

+$10

Record

53%

4327-3811 (8138)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$272.19

Value

$277.23

PnL

+$5.04

Record

50%

9398-9322 (18720)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$226.68

Value

$229.28

PnL

+$2.6

Record

53%

15316-13530 (28846)

LonnieHawkins<$100

Invested

$80.2

Value

$78.92

PnL

-$1.28

Record

51%

1754-1659 (3413)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.85

Value

$77.21

PnL

+$1.35

Record

53%

1995-1773 (3768)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.62

Value

$73.23

PnL

+$1.31

Record

58%

37843-27569 (65412)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.64

Value

$31.64

PnL

-$0.57

Record

56%

24841-19200 (44041)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$9.42

PnL

-$0.58

Record

67%

22347-10922 (33269)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$0.79

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$0.04

Record

62%

19399-11989 (31388)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 17 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.