Sevilla FC vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 8.5 Total Corners
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 54¢ · $18K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 100%
$18.5K
-$27.37
52.1¢ → 53.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 54%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI viper0310 | Overavg 52¢ | $15.6K | $15.6K | -$0 | 54% 14-12 (26) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Overavg 52¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$0 | 50% 17407-17735 (35142) |
AL alvahunter | Overavg 53¢ | $1.0K | $981.13 | -$18.87 | 38% 18-29 (47) |
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731 | Overavg 53¢ | $583 | $572 | -$11 | 38% 677-1082 (1759) |
 FeedTheBigBird | Overavg 51¢ | $255 | $260 | +$2.5 | 51% 32-31 (63) |
Invested
$15,600
Value
$15.6K
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
14-12 (26)
Invested
$1,079.9
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
17407-17735 (35142)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$981.13
PnL
-$18.87
Record
38%
18-29 (47)
Invested
$583
Value
$572
PnL
-$11
Record
38%
677-1082 (1759)
FeedTheBigBirdInvested
$255
Value
$260
PnL
+$2.5
Record
51%
32-31 (63)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.