Sevilla FC vs. CA Osasuna: Both Teams to Score
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$2.5K
$32.66
52.1¢ → 53¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 52.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$22.8 | 58% 37543-27331 (64874) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Noavg 52¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$10 | 53% 5236-4559 (9795) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47.1¢ | $43.79 | $43.65 | -$0.14 | 53% 15228-13430 (28658) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.