Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD: O/U 7.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$5.21

Smart Money Entry

95.8¢ → 99.1¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,463

Combined PnL+$61.04

Over3 traders

Total Value$95.01

Total Shares3,887

Combined PnL-$55.83

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 95.8¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$61.66	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
RN1CTR	Overavg 3.9¢	$139.05	$86.47	-$52.57	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 96.8¢	$7.76	$7.13	-$0.62	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 4.4¢	$11.49	$6.32	-$5.18	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 1.5¢	$0.3	$2.22	+$1.92	52% 16365-14925 (31290)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$3,309.96

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$61.66

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$139.05

Value

$86.47

PnL

-$52.57

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$7.76

Value

$7.13

PnL

-$0.62

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.49

Value

$6.32

PnL

-$5.18

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.3

Value

$2.22

PnL

+$1.92

Record

52%

16365-14925 (31290)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.