Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD: O/U 6.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 99¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 50%
$6.7K
$153.41
93¢ → 98.9¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 93.8¢ | $5.5K | $5.6K | +$110.33 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 94.5¢ | $593.87 | $586.8 | -$7.07 | 50% 8893-8828 (17721) |
MI MinevaJ | Underavg 76.7¢ | $243.61 | $260.29 | +$16.68 | 57% 886-658 (1544) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 2.4¢ | $96.49 | $111.48 | +$14.98 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Overavg 12.1¢ | $60.5 | $90.25 | +$29.75 | 56% 2044-1603 (3647) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 11¢ | $37.85 | $26.3 | -$11.56 | 50% 7794-7854 (15648) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 87.9¢ | $8.16 | $8.43 | +$0.27 | 57% 1578-1171 (2749) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 11.3¢ | $0.78 | $0.8 | +$0.02 | 51% 6631-6378 (13009) |
Invested
$5,482.67
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$110.33
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
Invested
$593.87
Value
$586.8
PnL
-$7.07
Record
50%
8893-8828 (17721)
Invested
$243.61
Value
$260.29
PnL
+$16.68
Record
57%
886-658 (1544)
RN1CTRInvested
$96.49
Value
$111.48
PnL
+$14.98
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
Invested
$60.5
Value
$90.25
PnL
+$29.75
Record
56%
2044-1603 (3647)
Invested
$37.85
Value
$26.3
PnL
-$11.56
Record
50%
7794-7854 (15648)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.16
Value
$8.43
PnL
+$0.27
Record
57%
1578-1171 (2749)
Invested
$0.78
Value
$0.8
PnL
+$0.02
Record
51%
6631-6378 (13009)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.