Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (92%). 6 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD: O/U 5.5

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 8.0¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 25

Over8¢Under92¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

Total Value

$17.6K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

29.3¢ → 8¢

-73% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 92%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over8%

Under92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares33,875

Combined PnL-$130.91

Under8 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares9,518

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IM impaulCTR	Overavg 30¢	$9.3K	$9.1K	-$154.64	61% 179-114 (293)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 70.4¢	$2.7K	$3.5K	+$774.36	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
RN1	Underavg 61.7¢	$2.7K	$3.4K	+$736.2	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
0X 0x5415e0326703e29A16f6B260Ce3C85692EF0F764-1781687530226CTR	Overavg 21¢	$525	$537.5	+$12.5	37% 154-257 (411)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 87¢	$408.54	$322.87	-$85.67	52% 16365-14925 (31290)
FR freeman123	Underavg 79.9¢	$300	$257.05	-$42.95	82% 507-112 (619)
MI MinevaJ	Underavg 51.1¢	$280.54	$162.33	+$50.45	57% 886-658 (1544)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$95.92	$94.14	-$1.78	56% 2044-1603 (3647)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 64.3¢	$64.22	$71.46	+$7.24	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 87¢	$70.47	$55.49	-$14.98	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$7.73	$20.29	+$12.56	50% 8893-8828 (17721)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$5.81	$5.13	-$0.68	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Overavg 9¢	$0.45	$1.58	+$1.13	55% 4248-3447 (7695)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 72¢	$1.09	$1.05	-$0.04	57% 1578-1171 (2749)

impaulCTR

Over

Invested

$9,278.51

Value

$9.1K

PnL

-$154.64

Record

61%

179-114 (293)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$2,742.46

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$774.36

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

RN1

Under

Invested

$2,710.99

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$736.2

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

0x5415e0326703e29A16f6B260Ce3C85692EF0F764-1781687530226CTR

Over

Invested

$525

Value

$537.5

PnL

+$12.5

Record

37%

154-257 (411)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$408.54

Value

$322.87

PnL

-$85.67

Record

52%

16365-14925 (31290)

freeman123

Under

Invested

$300

Value

$257.05

PnL

-$42.95

Record

82%

507-112 (619)

MinevaJ

Under

Invested

$280.54

Value

$162.33

PnL

+$50.45

Record

57%

886-658 (1544)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$95.92

Value

$94.14

PnL

-$1.78

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$64.22

Value

$71.46

PnL

+$7.24

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$70.47

Value

$55.49

PnL

-$14.98

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.73

Value

$20.29

PnL

+$12.56

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.81

Value

$5.13

PnL

-$0.68

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

hi774cCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.45

Value

$1.58

PnL

+$1.13

Record

55%

4248-3447 (7695)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0.04

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 92%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.4%

8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$962.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

1062.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.