Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD: O/U 4.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (36%) · Under at 73¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 36%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

-$134.23

Smart Money Entry

68.3¢ → 72.5¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares4,792

Combined PnL+$444.4

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares5,226

Combined PnL-$578.64

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
StudyPrediction	Underavg 72.5¢	$2.9K	$3.2K	+$340	51% 3613-3472 (7085)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Underavg 37.3¢	$1.8K	$2.8K	+$958.16	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
└ Under leg	Underavg 37.3¢	$1.1K	$2.1K	+$1.0K
└ Over leg	Overavg 30.7¢	$701.57	$628.87	-$72.7
RN1CTR	Overavg 41¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$387.52	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 53.7¢	$577.3	$457.08	-$120.22	56% 2044-1603 (3647)
Reformedx	Underavg 72¢	$144	$162	+$18	52% 717-650 (1367)
MI MinevaJ	Underavg 24.8¢	$321.77	$131.56	+$78.08	57% 886-658 (1544)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 75.8¢	$122.12	$130.44	+$8.32	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
FO fooooolCTR	Overavg 58.2¢	$159.3	$91.69	-$67.61	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
HRTradingARB<$100	Underavg 47.8¢	$79.53	$86.27	+$6.74	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.8¢	$39.83	$46.65	+$6.82
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.1¢	$39.7	$39.62	-$0.08
SK SkurwysynCTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$62	$60	-$2	51% 238-228 (466)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$56.21	$57.18	+$0.98	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 76¢	$13.6	$12.97	-$0.63	57% 5976-4437 (10413)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Overavg 52.1¢	$14.04	$12.41	-$1.64	53% 1882-1643 (3525)

StudyPrediction

Under

Invested

$2,899.99

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$340

Record

51%

3613-3472 (7085)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,796.08

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$958.16

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

Both legs:

Under$1,094.5137.3¢+$1.0K

Over$701.5730.7¢-$72.7

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,485.25

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$387.52

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$577.3

Value

$457.08

PnL

-$120.22

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

Reformedx

Under

Invested

$144

Value

$162

PnL

+$18

Record

52%

717-650 (1367)

MinevaJ

Under

Invested

$321.77

Value

$131.56

PnL

+$78.08

Record

57%

886-658 (1544)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$122.12

Value

$130.44

PnL

+$8.32

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

fooooolCTR

Over

Invested

$159.3

Value

$91.69

PnL

-$67.61

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

HRTradingARB<$100

Under

Invested

$79.53

Value

$86.27

PnL

+$6.74

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

Both legs:

Under$39.8347.8¢+$6.82

Over$39.744.1¢-$0.08

SkurwysynCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$62

Value

$60

PnL

-$2

Record

51%

238-228 (466)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$56.21

Value

$57.18

PnL

+$0.98

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.6

Value

$12.97

PnL

-$0.63

Record

57%

5976-4437 (10413)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.04

Value

$12.41

PnL

-$1.64

Record

53%

1882-1643 (3525)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.