Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD: O/U 3.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 45¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$7.5K
$130.07
40.8¢ → 44.5¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 45%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Overavg 40.8¢ | $4.1K | $4.3K | +$215.69 | 59% 13723-9541 (23264) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 59.4¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$77.64 | 58% 31334-22653 (53987) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Underavg 59¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$10 | 69% 4202-1899 (6101) |
SA Saber-greedCTR | Overavg 41¢ | $193.86 | $198.58 | +$4.73 | 59% 2244-1561 (3805) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 59.4¢ | $65.97 | $63.27 | -$2.7 | 54% 13658-11474 (25132) |
Invested
$4,050.19
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$215.69
Record
59%
13723-9541 (23264)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,938.12
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$77.64
Record
58%
31334-22653 (53987)
Invested
$1,180
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$10
Record
69%
4202-1899 (6101)
Invested
$193.86
Value
$198.58
PnL
+$4.73
Record
59%
2244-1561 (3805)
Invested
$65.97
Value
$63.27
PnL
-$2.7
Record
54%
13658-11474 (25132)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.