Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD: O/U 2.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 50%
$4.1K
$625.79
71.5¢ → 100¢
+40% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 67.9¢ | $2.0K | $2.4K | +$412.43 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
 StudyPredictionCTR | Underavg 32¢ | $640 | $810 | +$170 | 51% 3613-3472 (7085) |
 ZaiZoiBele | Overavg 99¢ | $339.57 | $341.29 | +$1.72 | 81% 4124-983 (5107) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 65.9¢ | $335.65 | $302.86 | -$32.79 | 52% 16365-14925 (31290) |
MI MinevaJ<$100 | Overavg 94¢ | $96.21 | $99.57 | +$3.36 | 57% 886-658 (1544) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 32.9¢ | $50.76 | $61.85 | +$11.09 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 16¢ | $20.95 | $53.04 | +$32.08 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Underavg 16¢ | $18.22 | $46.12 | +$27.9 | 59% 13975-9717 (23692) |
Invested
$2,001.43
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$412.43
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
StudyPredictionCTRInvested
$640
Value
$810
PnL
+$170
Record
51%
3613-3472 (7085)
ZaiZoiBeleInvested
$339.57
Value
$341.29
PnL
+$1.72
Record
81%
4124-983 (5107)
Invested
$335.65
Value
$302.86
PnL
-$32.79
Record
52%
16365-14925 (31290)
Invested
$96.21
Value
$99.57
PnL
+$3.36
Record
57%
886-658 (1544)
Invested
$50.76
Value
$61.85
PnL
+$11.09
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$20.95
Value
$53.04
PnL
+$32.08
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
Invested
$18.22
Value
$46.12
PnL
+$27.9
Record
59%
13975-9717 (23692)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.