Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5
9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (82%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
11
Over 82%
$1.1K
-$18.95
90.4¢ → 100¢
+11% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ZaiZoiBele | Overavg 98.9¢ | $409.27 | $388.53 | -$20.74 | 81% 4124-983 (5107) |
CA Cannae | Overavg 85¢ | $388.5 | $387.25 | -$1.25 | 53% 13609-12050 (25659) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 84.9¢ | $88.89 | $85.9 | -$2.99 | 52% 16365-14925 (31290) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Overavg 86¢ | $82.51 | $85.51 | +$3 | 50% 8893-8828 (17721) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 85¢ | $69.7 | $67.24 | -$2.46 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 14¢ | $38.48 | $43.26 | +$4.78 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 86¢ | $42.72 | $42.22 | -$0.5 | 51% 6631-6378 (13009) |
LO looppau<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $20.14 | $20.15 | +$0.01 | 99% 6841-38 (6879) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 95.1¢ | $13.02 | $12.09 | -$0.92 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $8.99 | $9 | +$0 | 57% 1578-1171 (2749) |
MI MinevaJCTR<$100 | Underavg 4¢ | $0.6 | $2.71 | +$2.11 | 57% 886-658 (1544) |
ZaiZoiBeleInvested
$409.27
Value
$388.53
PnL
-$20.74
Record
81%
4124-983 (5107)
Invested
$388.5
Value
$387.25
PnL
-$1.25
Record
53%
13609-12050 (25659)
Invested
$88.89
Value
$85.9
PnL
-$2.99
Record
52%
16365-14925 (31290)
Invested
$82.51
Value
$85.51
PnL
+$3
Record
50%
8893-8828 (17721)
Invested
$69.7
Value
$67.24
PnL
-$2.46
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
Invested
$38.48
Value
$43.26
PnL
+$4.78
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
Invested
$42.72
Value
$42.22
PnL
-$0.5
Record
51%
6631-6378 (13009)
Invested
$20.14
Value
$20.15
PnL
+$0.01
Record
99%
6841-38 (6879)
RN1<$100Invested
$13.02
Value
$12.09
PnL
-$0.92
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.99
Value
$9
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
1578-1171 (2749)
Invested
$0.6
Value
$2.71
PnL
+$2.11
Record
57%
886-658 (1544)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.