Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-2.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Levante UD (63%) · Levante UD at 91¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Real Sociedad de Fútbol10¢Levante UD90¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Levante UD

Consensus Traders

Levante UD 63%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$90.96

Smart Money Entry

74¢ → 90.5¢

+22% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralLevante UD at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Levante UD

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Real Sociedad de Fútbol10%

Levante UD91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Levante UD5 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,010

Combined PnL+$89.22

Real Sociedad de Fútbol3 traders

Total Value$4.53

Total Shares19

Combined PnL+$1.74

Levante UD — 63%Real Sociedad de Fútbol — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Levante UDavg 72.1¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$97.91	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
AN Anon455	Levante UDavg 85¢	$285.2	$290.24	+$5.03	56% 2044-1603 (3647)
FO foooool	Levante UDavg 74.4¢	$218.5	$207.51	-$10.99	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Levante UDavg 79¢	$70.31	$68.53	-$1.78	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Levante UDavg 79¢	$37.61	$36.66	-$0.95	52% 16365-14925 (31290)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Real Sociedad de Fútbolavg 28.9¢	$4.6	$3.1	-$1.5	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Real Sociedad de Fútbolavg 19¢	$1.01	$1.04	+$0.03	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
MI MinevaJCTR<$100	Real Sociedad de Fútbolavg 14¢	$2.98	$0.4	+$3.21	57% 886-658 (1544)

UpTheBlues

Levante UD

Invested

$1,908

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$97.91

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

Anon455

Levante UD

Invested

$285.2

Value

$290.24

PnL

+$5.03

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

foooool

Levante UD

Invested

$218.5

Value

$207.51

PnL

-$10.99

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Levante UD

Invested

$70.31

Value

$68.53

PnL

-$1.78

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Levante UD

Invested

$37.61

Value

$36.66

PnL

-$0.95

Record

52%

16365-14925 (31290)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Real Sociedad de Fútbol

Invested

$4.6

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$1.5

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Real Sociedad de Fútbol

Invested

$1.01

Value

$1.04

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

MinevaJCTR<$100

Real Sociedad de Fútbol

Invested

$2.98

Value

$0.4

PnL

+$3.21

Record

57%

886-658 (1544)

Research grade

NeutralLevante UD at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Levante UD

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Levante UD wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.