Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Levante UD (36%) · Levante UD at 55¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Real Sociedad de Fútbol45¢Levante UD55¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Levante UD

Consensus Traders

Levante UD 36%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$176.38

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 55¢

-5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralLevante UD at 55%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Levante UD

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Real Sociedad de Fútbol45%

Levante UD55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Levante UD4 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares5,606

Combined PnL+$297.78

Real Sociedad de Fútbol7 traders

Total Value$915.88

Total Shares2,601

Combined PnL-$121.4

Levante UD — 36%Real Sociedad de Fútbol — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mooseborzoii	Levante UDavg 59.8¢	$2.7K	$3.0K	+$321.55	50% 1017-1009 (2026)
UP UpTheBlues	Levante UDavg 50.5¢	$515.16	$469.02	-$46.14	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
RN1CTR	Real Sociedad de Fútbolavg 40¢	$468	$386.1	-$81.9	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Real Sociedad de Fútbolavg 38¢	$296.52	$257.51	-$39.02	52% 16365-14925 (31290)
VeryLucky888CTR	Real Sociedad de Fútbolavg 38.4¢	$203.74	$132.69	-$19.54	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Real Sociedad de Fútbolavg 40.2¢	$50.2	$68.4	+$18.2	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Levante UDavg 60¢	$55.56	$62.02	+$6.45	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Real Sociedad de Fútbolavg 54¢	$53.15	$53.64	+$0.49	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
MI MinevaJ<$100	Levante UDavg 42.3¢	$38.03	$14.62	+$15.92	57% 886-658 (1544)
ZaiZoiBeleCTR<$100	Real Sociedad de Fútbolavg 56¢	$11.2	$10.7	-$0.5	81% 4124-983 (5107)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Real Sociedad de Fútbolavg 52¢	$5.98	$6.84	+$0.86	65% 12565-6695 (19260)

mooseborzoii

Levante UD

Invested

$2,667.76

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$321.55

Record

50%

1017-1009 (2026)

UpTheBlues

Levante UD

Invested

$515.16

Value

$469.02

PnL

-$46.14

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

RN1CTR

Real Sociedad de Fútbol

Invested

$468

Value

$386.1

PnL

-$81.9

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Real Sociedad de Fútbol

Invested

$296.52

Value

$257.51

PnL

-$39.02

Record

52%

16365-14925 (31290)

VeryLucky888CTR

Real Sociedad de Fútbol

Invested

$203.74

Value

$132.69

PnL

-$19.54

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Real Sociedad de Fútbol

Invested

$50.2

Value

$68.4

PnL

+$18.2

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Levante UD

Invested

$55.56

Value

$62.02

PnL

+$6.45

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

fooooolCTR<$100

Real Sociedad de Fútbol

Invested

$53.15

Value

$53.64

PnL

+$0.49

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

MinevaJ<$100

Levante UD

Invested

$38.03

Value

$14.62

PnL

+$15.92

Record

57%

886-658 (1544)

ZaiZoiBeleCTR<$100

Real Sociedad de Fútbol

Invested

$11.2

Value

$10.7

PnL

-$0.5

Record

81%

4124-983 (5107)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Real Sociedad de Fútbol

Invested

$5.98

Value

$6.84

PnL

+$0.86

Record

65%

12565-6695 (19260)

Research grade

NeutralLevante UD at 55%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Levante UD

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Levante UD wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.