Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-10-25?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 62¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$0.25

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 61.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,627

Combined PnL-$8.06

No3 traders

Total Value$659.77

Total Shares1,718

Combined PnL+$8.31

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ComingBack	Yesavg 62¢	$1.0K	$1,000	-$8.06	62% 3694-2243 (5937)
E0 0xe020...f39bCTR	Noavg 38¢	$512.19	$518.93	+$6.74	—
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 38.1¢	$73.87	$73.59	+$0.69	53% 13584-12026 (25610)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$67.25	$67.25	+$0.88	54% 13818-11600 (25418)
JI jiafan<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$8.56	$8.56	+$0	61% 1311-833 (2144)

ComingBack

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1,000

PnL

-$8.06

Record

62%

3694-2243 (5937)

0xe020...f39bCTR

Invested

$512.19

Value

$518.93

PnL

+$6.74

Record

—

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$73.87

Value

$73.59

PnL

+$0.69

Record

53%

13584-12026 (25610)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$67.25

Value

$67.25

PnL

+$0.88

Record

54%

13818-11600 (25418)

jiafan<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.56

Value

$8.56

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

1311-833 (2144)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.