Will Levante UD win on 2026-10-25?

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 93¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Yes8¢No92¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$29.55

Smart Money Entry

83.2¢ → 92.5¢

+11% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,799

Combined PnL+$42.59

Yes5 traders

Total Value$183.37

Total Shares1,469

Combined PnL-$72.14

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Noavg 84¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$9.92	56% 2044-1603 (3647)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 82¢	$996.24	$1.0K	+$12.15	69% 1745-795 (2540)
CA Cannae	Noavg 82.9¢	$511.68	$518.03	+$6.34	53% 13609-12050 (25659)
KY Kyn008	Noavg 83¢	$345.03	$345.03	-$0	50% 194-191 (385)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 85.9¢	$247.94	$260.66	+$12.72	53% 12260-10982 (23242)
MI MinevaJARB<$100	Noavg 94¢	$204.74	$204.58	-$0.16	57% 886-658 (1544)
└ No leg	Noavg 94¢	$154.32	$153.5	-$0.82
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 6.4¢	$50.42	$51.08	+$0.66
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 16.4¢	$285.9	$155.15	-$130.75	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 16.4¢	$218.41	$86.45	-$131.96
└ No leg	Noavg 91.9¢	$67.49	$68.7	+$1.21
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 16¢	$105	$114.84	+$9.84	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 82.4¢	$72.44	$72.96	+$0.52	53% 1882-1643 (3525)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 82¢	$54.57	$55.24	+$0.67	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Noavg 83¢	$49.78	$49.78	+$0	65% 12565-6695 (19260)
ZaiZoiBeleCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.9¢	$95.42	$40.46	-$54.96	81% 4124-983 (5107)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 82.4¢	$26.52	$26.91	+$0.39	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.8¢	$49.13	$21.96	-$27.17	63% 1414-833 (2247)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 86¢	$12.74	$12.17	-$0.57	46% 1535-1785 (3320)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	Noavg 88¢	$8.8	$9.25	+$0.45	56% 471-363 (834)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$3.91	$3.91	-$0	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$2.05	$2.2	+$0.15	50% 8893-8828 (17721)

Anon455

Invested

$1,005.82

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$9.92

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$996.24

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$12.15

Record

69%

1745-795 (2540)

Cannae

Invested

$511.68

Value

$518.03

PnL

+$6.34

Record

53%

13609-12050 (25659)

Kyn008

Invested

$345.03

Value

$345.03

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

194-191 (385)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$247.94

Value

$260.66

PnL

+$12.72

Record

53%

12260-10982 (23242)

MinevaJARB<$100

Invested

$204.74

Value

$204.58

PnL

-$0.16

Record

57%

886-658 (1544)

Both legs:

Invested

$285.9

Value

$155.15

PnL

-$130.75

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

Both legs:

Yes$218.4116.4¢-$131.96

No$67.4991.9¢+$1.21

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$105

Value

$114.84

PnL

+$9.84

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$72.44

Value

$72.96

PnL

+$0.52

Record

53%

1882-1643 (3525)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$54.57

Value

$55.24

PnL

+$0.67

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

Lilybaeum<$100

Invested

$49.78

Value

$49.78

PnL

+$0

Record

65%

12565-6695 (19260)

ZaiZoiBeleCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.42

Value

$40.46

PnL

-$54.96

Record

81%

4124-983 (5107)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$26.52

Value

$26.91

PnL

+$0.39

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.13

Value

$21.96

PnL

-$27.17

Record

63%

1414-833 (2247)

123987456<$100

Invested

$12.74

Value

$12.17

PnL

-$0.57

Record

46%

1535-1785 (3320)

averagejoetraders<$100

Invested

$8.8

Value

$9.25

PnL

+$0.45

Record

56%

471-363 (834)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.91

Value

$3.91

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.