Real Sociedad de Fútbol leading at halftime?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$56.24

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 100¢

+10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,639

Combined PnL-$156.09

No3 traders

Total Value$412.52

Total Shares845

Combined PnL+$212.34

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZaiZoiBele	Yesavg 99¢	$847.5	$851.78	+$4.28	81% 4124-983 (5107)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 52.8¢	$317.52	$351.6	+$34.08	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
RN1	Yesavg 79¢	$481.3	$317.8	-$163.5	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 87¢	$267.09	$271.7	+$4.61	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$36.99	$40.83	+$3.84	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
MI MinevaJCTR	Noavg 13.9¢	$144.03	$20.1	+$174.42	57% 886-658 (1544)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 85¢	$2.89	$1.41	-$1.48	57% 1578-1171 (2749)

ZaiZoiBele

Yes

Invested

$847.5

Value

$851.78

PnL

+$4.28

Record

81%

4124-983 (5107)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$317.52

Value

$351.6

PnL

+$34.08

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$481.3

Value

$317.8

PnL

-$163.5

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$267.09

Value

$271.7

PnL

+$4.61

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$36.99

Value

$40.83

PnL

+$3.84

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

MinevaJCTR

Invested

$144.03

Value

$20.1

PnL

+$174.42

Record

57%

886-658 (1544)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.89

Value

$1.41

PnL

-$1.48

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.