Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD: 1st Half O/U 3.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 33%
1 arb excluded
$7.3K
$-1.1K
52.5¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ZaiZoiBeleCTR | Overavg 52.5¢ | $6.4K | $5.2K | $-1.2K | 81% 4124-983 (5107) |
ZX zxc368 | Underavg 99.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$0.54 | 99% 9100-129 (9229) |
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72 | Underavg 93¢ | $570.76 | $494.04 | -$76.71 | 72% 1847-728 (2575) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Underavg 56.5¢ | $155.46 | $284.45 | +$128.99 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 56.5¢ | $110.1 | $156.98 | +$46.88 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 6.9¢ | $45.36 | $127.47 | +$82.11 | |
 HRTrading | Underavg 46¢ | $146.4 | $266.48 | +$120.08 | 57% 1578-1171 (2749) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 66¢ | $36.43 | $35.79 | -$0.64 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 36¢ | $0.56 | $0.66 | +$0.09 | 50% 7794-7854 (15648) |
ZaiZoiBeleCTRInvested
$6,427.43
Value
$5.2K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
81%
4124-983 (5107)
Invested
$1,086.26
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$0.54
Record
99%
9100-129 (9229)
Invested
$570.76
Value
$494.04
PnL
-$76.71
Record
72%
1847-728 (2575)
Invested
$155.46
Value
$284.45
PnL
+$128.99
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
Both legs:
HRTradingInvested
$146.4
Value
$266.48
PnL
+$120.08
Record
57%
1578-1171 (2749)
RN1<$100Invested
$36.43
Value
$35.79
PnL
-$0.64
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
Invested
$0.56
Value
$0.66
PnL
+$0.09
Record
50%
7794-7854 (15648)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.