Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD: 1st Half O/U 2.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Entry

98.4¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$911.27

Total Shares3,434

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Under2 traders

Total Value$362.43

Total Shares490

Combined PnL+$182.11

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZaiZoiBele	Overavg 99¢	$3.3K	$873.25	$-2.5K	81% 4124-983 (5107)
MI MinevaJCTR	Underavg 52.6¢	$178.81	$251.43	+$72.61	57% 886-658 (1544)
PA pauleta23CTR	Underavg 1¢	$1.5	$111	+$109.5	71% 17700-7191 (24891)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Overavg 75.4¢	$48.38	$21.43	-$26.95	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
RN1<$100	Overavg 54¢	$22.69	$16.58	-$6.11	55% 43817-36057 (79874)

ZaiZoiBele

Over

Invested

$3,325.08

Value

$873.25

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

81%

4124-983 (5107)

MinevaJCTR

Under

Invested

$178.81

Value

$251.43

PnL

+$72.61

Record

57%

886-658 (1544)

pauleta23CTR

Under

Invested

$1.5

Value

$111

PnL

+$109.5

Record

71%

17700-7191 (24891)

UpTheBlues<$100

Over

Invested

$48.38

Value

$21.43

PnL

-$26.95

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$22.69

Value

$16.58

PnL

-$6.11

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.