Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD: 1st Half O/U 1.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 100¢ · $986 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 33%
$986.15
-$117.8
91.6¢ → 100¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI MinevaJCTR | Underavg 28.6¢ | $146.98 | $316.29 | +$169.31 | 57% 886-658 (1544) |
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609 | Overavg 94¢ | $668.34 | $273.73 | -$394.6 | 81% 1830-437 (2267) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 55¢ | $158.23 | $176.93 | +$18.7 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 50.5¢ | $107.86 | $114.24 | +$6.37 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Underavg 6¢ | $9 | $92.25 | +$83.25 | 71% 17700-7191 (24891) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $13.53 | $12.71 | -$0.82 | 61% 4558-2887 (7445) |
Invested
$146.98
Value
$316.29
PnL
+$169.31
Record
57%
886-658 (1544)
Invested
$668.34
Value
$273.73
PnL
-$394.6
Record
81%
1830-437 (2267)
RN1CTRInvested
$158.23
Value
$176.93
PnL
+$18.7
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
Invested
$107.86
Value
$114.24
PnL
+$6.37
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
Invested
$9
Value
$92.25
PnL
+$83.25
Record
71%
17700-7191 (24891)
Invested
$13.53
Value
$12.71
PnL
-$0.82
Record
61%
4558-2887 (7445)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.