Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (65%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2 - 1 Levante UD?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 36¢ · $339 held · ended Oct 25

Yes36¢No64¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$339.26

Combined PnL

-$40.65

Smart Money Entry

12.9¢ → 35.5¢

+175% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$218.37

Total Shares243

Combined PnL+$2.27

Yes4 traders

Total Value$120.89

Total Shares1,271

Combined PnL-$42.93

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 89¢	$200.23	$140.38	+$2.25	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 12.9¢	$140.2	$98.1	-$42.1	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Noavg 90¢	$62.1	$62.1	+$0	61% 4558-2887 (7445)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$20.7	$19.9	-$0.8	59% 13975-9717 (23692)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 90¢	$13.71	$13.71	+$0	52% 2649-2428 (5077)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 90¢	$2.16	$2.18	+$0.02	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$1.52	$1.52	+$0	50% 8893-8828 (17721)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$1.39	$1.36	-$0.03	55% 43817-36057 (79874)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$200.23

Value

$140.38

PnL

+$2.25

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$140.2

Value

$98.1

PnL

-$42.1

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

Forecastication2<$100

Invested

$62.1

Value

$62.1

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

4558-2887 (7445)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.7

Value

$19.9

PnL

-$0.8

Record

59%

13975-9717 (23692)

korda77<$100

Invested

$13.71

Value

$13.71

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

2649-2428 (5077)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.18

PnL

+$0.02

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.52

Value

$1.52

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.39

Value

$1.36

PnL

-$0.03

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.