Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD end in a draw?

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (59%) · No at 84¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25

Yes17¢No83¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 59%

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$103.44

Smart Money Entry

84.1¢ → 83.5¢

-1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares6,649

Combined PnL+$23.81

Yes7 traders

Total Value$889.95

Total Shares5,020

Combined PnL+$79.63

No — 59%Yes — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI MinevaJ	Noavg 84.5¢	$3.5K	$3.3K	+$38.77	57% 886-658 (1544)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 83¢	$881.92	$878.41	-$3.51	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
AN Anon455	Noavg 85.9¢	$542.66	$527.58	-$8.77	56% 2044-1603 (3647)
TO torta.tech	Noavg 82¢	$471.2	$479.82	+$8.62	75% 6144-2035 (8179)
GH ghostorderCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$413	$442.5	+$29.5	68% 3945-1883 (5828)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 83¢	$356.39	$354.01	-$2.38	53% 12260-10982 (23242)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 21¢	$269.82	$212.78	+$20.81	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$149.58	$171.94	+$22.36	53% 13609-12050 (25659)
ZaiZoiBele<$100	Noavg 86¢	$72.87	$65.24	-$7.63	81% 4124-983 (5107)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 78¢	$31.98	$31.57	-$0.41	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
RN1<$100	Noavg 86¢	$27.95	$28.11	+$0.16	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.2¢	$26.44	$27.9	+$1.46	50% 8893-8828 (17721)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 85¢	$17.17	$17.27	+$0.1	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$14.08	$16.63	+$2.55	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.1¢	$11.94	$12.23	+$0.29	46% 1535-1785 (3320)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 87¢	$10	$8.85	-$1.15	71% 17700-7191 (24891)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.9¢	$76.52	$5.97	+$2.66	53% 1882-1643 (3525)

MinevaJ

Invested

$3,502.28

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$38.77

Record

57%

886-658 (1544)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$881.92

Value

$878.41

PnL

-$3.51

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

Anon455

Invested

$542.66

Value

$527.58

PnL

-$8.77

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

torta.tech

Invested

$471.2

Value

$479.82

PnL

+$8.62

Record

75%

6144-2035 (8179)

ghostorderCTR

Yes

Invested

$413

Value

$442.5

PnL

+$29.5

Record

68%

3945-1883 (5828)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$356.39

Value

$354.01

PnL

-$2.38

Record

53%

12260-10982 (23242)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$269.82

Value

$212.78

PnL

+$20.81

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$149.58

Value

$171.94

PnL

+$22.36

Record

53%

13609-12050 (25659)

ZaiZoiBele<$100

Invested

$72.87

Value

$65.24

PnL

-$7.63

Record

81%

4124-983 (5107)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$31.98

Value

$31.57

PnL

-$0.41

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

RN1<$100

Invested

$27.95

Value

$28.11

PnL

+$0.16

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.44

Value

$27.9

PnL

+$1.46

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

foooool<$100

Invested

$17.17

Value

$17.27

PnL

+$0.1

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.08

Value

$16.63

PnL

+$2.55

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.94

Value

$12.23

PnL

+$0.29

Record

46%

1535-1785 (3320)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$8.85

PnL

-$1.15

Record

71%

17700-7191 (24891)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.52

Value

$5.97

PnL

+$2.66

Record

53%

1882-1643 (3525)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.