Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD: Both Teams to Score

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$3.61

Smart Money Entry

73.3¢ → 100¢

+36% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$763.95

Total Shares1,021

Combined PnL-$4.83

No2 traders

Total Value$533.3

Total Shares1,379

Combined PnL+$1.22

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO foooool	Yesavg 63.3¢	$396.13	$400.37	+$4.23	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 37.2¢	$349.98	$357.76	+$7.79	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
ZaiZoiBele	Yesavg 99¢	$287.88	$279.16	-$8.72	81% 4124-983 (5107)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 40¢	$184.3	$175.54	-$6.57	53% 13609-12050 (25659)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$42.07	$42.42	+$0.35	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
0xheavy888<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$37.66	$37.05	-$0.61	56% 6385-5115 (11500)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$5.04	$4.96	-$0.08	57% 1578-1171 (2749)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$396.13

Value

$400.37

PnL

+$4.23

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$349.98

Value

$357.76

PnL

+$7.79

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

ZaiZoiBele

Yes

Invested

$287.88

Value

$279.16

PnL

-$8.72

Record

81%

4124-983 (5107)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$184.3

Value

$175.54

PnL

-$6.57

Record

53%

13609-12050 (25659)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.07

Value

$42.42

PnL

+$0.35

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

0xheavy888<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.66

Value

$37.05

PnL

-$0.61

Record

56%

6385-5115 (11500)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.04

Value

$4.96

PnL

-$0.08

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.