Málaga CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 0.5
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 92¢ · $4K held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
Over
2
Over 100%
$3.9K
$-3.2K
75.4¢ → 91.5¢
+21% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 92%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA Magnabelli | Overavg 75.5¢ | $3.2K | $3.9K | $-3.2K | 78% 612-172 (784) |
0X 0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065<$100 | Overavg 60¢ | $12.52 | $19.1 | -$12.52 | 63% 226-130 (356) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.