RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 76¢ · $473 held · ended Oct 25

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$472.62

Combined PnL

$1.45

Smart Money Entry

72¢ → 76¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$290.19

Total Shares400

Combined PnL+$2.19

Over3 traders

Total Value$182.43

Total Shares676

Combined PnL-$0.74

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 72¢	$271.99	$274.05	+$2.06	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Overavg 27.8¢	$109.29	$106.11	-$3.18	54% 13815-11594 (25409)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$63.54	$65.99	+$2.44	58% 31667-22925 (54592)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Underavg 73¢	$11.38	$11.38	-$0	53% 1871-1637 (3508)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$10.33	$10.33	-$0	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 71¢	$4.63	$4.76	+$0.13	58% 1472-1088 (2560)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$271.99

Value

$274.05

PnL

+$2.06

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Over

Invested

$109.29

Value

$106.11

PnL

-$3.18

Record

54%

13815-11594 (25409)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$63.54

Value

$65.99

PnL

+$2.44

Record

58%

31667-22925 (54592)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Under

Invested

$11.38

Value

$11.38

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

1871-1637 (3508)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.33

Value

$10.33

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$4.63

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$0.13

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.