RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 1.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 72¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
2 arb excluded
$2.2K
$25.08
78.4¢ → 71.5¢
-9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 72%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 78.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$85.76 | 52% 16287-14836 (31123) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 24¢ | $751.6 | $862.9 | +$111.3 | 68% 31167-14971 (46138) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Overavg 76.2¢ | $108.42 | $113.47 | +$0.68 | 54% 13815-11594 (25409) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 76.2¢ | $77.76 | $75.51 | -$2.24 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 21¢ | $30.66 | $37.96 | +$2.92 | |
CA CannaeARB<$100 | Underavg 20¢ | $92.15 | $106.32 | +$3.07 | 53% 13578-12019 (25597) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 20¢ | $50.77 | $66 | +$2.54 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 78¢ | $41.38 | $40.31 | +$0.53 | |
PL PLACEYOURBETS123<$100 | Overavg 76¢ | $9.31 | $9.07 | -$0.25 | 57% 29-22 (51) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 28¢ | $7.78 | $7.78 | -$0 | 51% 6565-6327 (12892) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Overavg 78¢ | $4.21 | $4 | -$0.22 | 53% 1871-1637 (3508) |
Invested
$1,133.83
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$85.76
Record
52%
16287-14836 (31123)
Invested
$751.6
Value
$862.9
PnL
+$111.3
Record
68%
31167-14971 (46138)
Invested
$108.42
Value
$113.47
PnL
+$0.68
Record
54%
13815-11594 (25409)
Both legs:
Invested
$92.15
Value
$106.32
PnL
+$3.07
Record
53%
13578-12019 (25597)
Both legs:
Invested
$9.31
Value
$9.07
PnL
-$0.25
Record
57%
29-22 (51)
Invested
$7.78
Value
$7.78
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
6565-6327 (12892)
Invested
$4.21
Value
$4
PnL
-$0.22
Record
53%
1871-1637 (3508)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.