RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 0.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 100¢ · $46K held · ended Oct 25

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.7K

Combined PnL

$-10.3K

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 100¢

+84% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$14.3K

Total Shares18,864

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Under8 traders

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares38,633

Combined PnL$-11.6K

Over — 27%Under — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 37.8¢	$12.0K	$16.8K	+$4.8K	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
└ Over leg	Overavg 22.4¢	$3.3K	$11.3K	+$8.0K
└ Under leg	Underavg 37.8¢	$8.6K	$5.5K	$-3.2K
0X 0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065CTR	Overavg 76¢	$11.6K	$11.6K	+$3.6	60% 181-119 (300)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 39.3¢	$7.1K	$4.4K	$-2.7K	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72	Underavg 83.2¢	$12.3K	$3.6K	$-8.8K	72% 1833-723 (2556)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 30.4¢	$1.7K	$3.5K	+$1.8K	52% 16312-14865 (31177)
└ Over leg	Overavg 30.4¢	$1.0K	$2.5K	+$1.5K
└ Under leg	Underavg 16.9¢	$658.65	$936.34	+$277.69
BB BBQChickenisthebestttCTR	Overavg 36.2¢	$1.3K	$2.7K	+$1.4K	58% 526-379 (905)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 51.5¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$85.71	56% 2033-1584 (3617)
└ Over leg	Overavg 38.5¢	$651.93	$1.3K	+$635.71
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.5¢	$1.0K	$480	-$550
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 23.1¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$39.59	50% 8825-8766 (17591)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 35¢	$359.1	$246.24	-$112.86	50% 7770-7819 (15589)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 34¢	$99.96	$70.56	-$29.4	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 69.5¢	$23.05	$63.92	+$40.87	57% 1506-1114 (2620)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 93¢	$57.66	$47.11	-$10.55	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Underavg 56¢	$22.29	$12.48	-$9.81	53% 1872-1637 (3509)
MA maxiplayer<$100	Underavg 96¢	$45.69	$11.42	-$34.26	76% 574-177 (751)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$11,967.9

Value

$16.8K

PnL

+$4.8K

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

Both legs:

Over$3,331.8922.4¢+$8.0K

Under$8,636.0137.8¢$-3.2K

0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065CTR

Over

Invested

$11,625.91

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$3.6

Record

60%

181-119 (300)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$7,095.14

Value

$4.4K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72

Under

Invested

$12,344.87

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-8.8K

Record

72%

1833-723 (2556)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,664.4

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

52%

16312-14865 (31177)

Both legs:

Over$1,005.7530.4¢+$1.5K

Under$658.6516.9¢+$277.69

BBQChickenisthebestttCTR

Over

Invested

$1,267.49

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

58%

526-379 (905)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,681.93

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$85.71

Record

56%

2033-1584 (3617)

Both legs:

Over$651.9338.5¢+$635.71

Under$1,03051.5¢-$550

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$1,008.26

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$39.59

Record

50%

8825-8766 (17591)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$359.1

Value

$246.24

PnL

-$112.86

Record

50%

7770-7819 (15589)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$99.96

Value

$70.56

PnL

-$29.4

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$23.05

Value

$63.92

PnL

+$40.87

Record

57%

1506-1114 (2620)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$57.66

Value

$47.11

PnL

-$10.55

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Under

Invested

$22.29

Value

$12.48

PnL

-$9.81

Record

53%

1872-1637 (3509)

maxiplayer<$100

Under

Invested

$45.69

Value

$11.42

PnL

-$34.26

Record

76%

574-177 (751)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.