Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Real Betis Balompié (60%) · Real Betis Balompié at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Real Betis Balompié
5
Real Betis Balompié 60%
$1.7K
-$75.77
94.2¢ → 100¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralReal Betis Balompié at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Real Betis Balompiéavg 95.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$94.98 | 68% 31211-14997 (46208) |
FO foooool | Real Betis Balompiéavg 84¢ | $189 | $202.5 | +$13.5 | 51% 6583-6340 (12923) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Real Betis Balompiéavg 86¢ | $8.17 | $8.55 | +$0.38 | 54% 13824-11602 (25426) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | RC Celta de Vigoavg 0.1¢ | $0.06 | $5.5 | +$5.45 | 55% 43612-35879 (79491) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | RC Celta de Vigoavg 11¢ | $1.22 | $1.11 | -$0.11 | 53% 13585-12026 (25611) |
Invested
$1,622.87
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$94.98
Record
68%
31211-14997 (46208)
Invested
$189
Value
$202.5
PnL
+$13.5
Record
51%
6583-6340 (12923)
Invested
$8.17
Value
$8.55
PnL
+$0.38
Record
54%
13824-11602 (25426)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.06
Value
$5.5
PnL
+$5.45
Record
55%
43612-35879 (79491)
Invested
$1.22
Value
$1.11
PnL
-$0.11
Record
53%
13585-12026 (25611)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.