Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5)

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold RC Celta de Vigo (25%) · RC Celta de Vigo at 92¢ · $777 held · ended Oct 25

Real Betis Balompié8¢RC Celta de Vigo92¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

RC Celta de Vigo

Consensus Traders

RC Celta de Vigo 25%

Total Value

$776.69

Combined PnL

$66.13

Research grade

NeutralRC Celta de Vigo at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

RC Celta de Vigo

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Real Betis Balompié8%

RC Celta de Vigo92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

RC Celta de Vigo1 trader

Total Value$757.62

Total Shares824

Combined PnL+$73.14

Real Betis Balompié3 traders

Total Value$19.07

Total Shares184

Combined PnL-$7.01

RC Celta de Vigo — 25%Real Betis Balompié — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	RC Celta de Vigoavg 83.1¢	$684.48	$757.62	+$73.14	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Real Betis Balompiéavg 15.6¢	$16.93	$11.15	-$5.39	53% 13585-12026 (25611)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Real Betis Balompiéavg 12¢	$9.16	$6.11	-$3.05	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
RN1CTR<$100	Real Betis Balompiéavg 1.7¢	$0.39	$1.81	+$1.43	55% 43612-35879 (79491)

UpTheBlues

RC Celta de Vigo

Invested

$684.48

Value

$757.62

PnL

+$73.14

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

CannaeCTR<$100

Real Betis Balompié

Invested

$16.93

Value

$11.15

PnL

-$5.39

Record

53%

13585-12026 (25611)

fooooolCTR<$100

Real Betis Balompié

Invested

$9.16

Value

$6.11

PnL

-$3.05

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

RN1CTR<$100

Real Betis Balompié

Invested

$0.39

Value

$1.81

PnL

+$1.43

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

Research grade

NeutralRC Celta de Vigo at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

RC Celta de Vigo

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that RC Celta de Vigo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.