RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Betis Balompié: Draw at halftime?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 99¢ · $882 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$882.41
$9.48
98.9¢ → 99¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ZaiZoiBele | Yesavg 99¢ | $877.83 | $878.19 | +$8.79 | 81% 4111-979 (5090) |
ZX zxc368<$100 | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $2.26 | $2.24 | -$0.02 | 99% 9037-127 (9164) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $1.26 | $1.98 | +$0.72 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.