Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw?

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (53%) · Yes at 100¢ · $20K held · ended Oct 25

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 53%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.4K

Combined PnL

$-3.9K

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 100¢

+76% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 15 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares26,827

Combined PnL$-4.9K

No7 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares8,635

Combined PnL+$994.75

Yes — 53%No — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 48.6¢	$7.3K	$5.8K	$-1.4K	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 46.8¢	$2.2K	$4.1K	+$1.9K	52% 16312-14865 (31177)
└ No leg	Noavg 19¢	$964.47	$3.1K	+$2.1K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46.8¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$207.92
RN1CTR	Noavg 36.6¢	$1.9K	$2.9K	+$997.79	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Yesavg 65.4¢	$2.9K	$1.7K	$-1.2K	53% 1872-1637 (3509)
us391CTR	Noavg 71¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$34.03	52% 1359-1270 (2629)
RA rabbitfoot1	Yesavg 87.8¢	$2.5K	$1.1K	$-1.4K	53% 901-789 (1690)
AN Anon455	Yesavg 61.9¢	$1.3K	$831.52	-$487.9	56% 2033-1584 (3617)
ZaiZoiBele	Yesavg 56.2¢	$1.4K	$775.32	-$421.46	81% 4111-979 (5090)
AV averagejoetradersCTR	Noavg 60¢	$600.65	$610.4	-$35.28	56% 468-363 (831)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Noavg 33.6¢	$297.91	$440.54	+$142.63	53% 12247-10971 (23218)
AD adururuCTR	Noavg 67.8¢	$295.3	$265.5	-$29.8	54% 292-248 (540)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Noavg 66.7¢	$290.35	$265.5	-$44.43	52% 219-201 (420)
FO foooool	Yesavg 32.5¢	$124.69	$149.68	+$24.99	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 70.6¢	$94	$91.87	-$2.13	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$40.44	$75.56	+$35.12	65% 12556-6677 (19233)
└ No leg	Noavg 12¢	$9.61	$48.84	+$39.23
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45¢	$30.83	$26.72	-$4.11
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Yesavg 49.2¢	$48.18	$38.22	-$9.96	58% 16155-11793 (27948)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 80.2¢	$22.23	$27.6	+$5.37	57% 1506-1114 (2620)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$7,263.82

Value

$5.8K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,214.57

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

52%

16312-14865 (31177)

Both legs:

No$964.4719¢+$2.1K

Yes$1,250.146.8¢-$207.92

RN1CTR

Invested

$1,877.43

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$997.79

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Yes

Invested

$2,928.15

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

53%

1872-1637 (3509)

us391CTR

Invested

$1,208.09

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$34.03

Record

52%

1359-1270 (2629)

rabbitfoot1

Yes

Invested

$2,450.78

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

53%

901-789 (1690)

Anon455

Yes

Invested

$1,319.42

Value

$831.52

PnL

-$487.9

Record

56%

2033-1584 (3617)

ZaiZoiBele

Yes

Invested

$1,430.55

Value

$775.32

PnL

-$421.46

Record

81%

4111-979 (5090)

averagejoetradersCTR

Invested

$600.65

Value

$610.4

PnL

-$35.28

Record

56%

468-363 (831)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Invested

$297.91

Value

$440.54

PnL

+$142.63

Record

53%

12247-10971 (23218)

adururuCTR

Invested

$295.3

Value

$265.5

PnL

-$29.8

Record

54%

292-248 (540)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Invested

$290.35

Value

$265.5

PnL

-$44.43

Record

52%

219-201 (420)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$124.69

Value

$149.68

PnL

+$24.99

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$94

Value

$91.87

PnL

-$2.13

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.44

Value

$75.56

PnL

+$35.12

Record

65%

12556-6677 (19233)

Both legs:

Invested

$48.18

Value

$38.22

PnL

-$9.96

Record

58%

16155-11793 (27948)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.23

Value

$27.6

PnL

+$5.37

Record

57%

1506-1114 (2620)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 15 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.