RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 9.5 Total Corners
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 55¢ · $30K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 38%
$29.9K
-$414.64
58.3¢ → 54.5¢
-7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 55%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FR fraagen | Underavg 58.5¢ | $15.9K | $15.7K | -$147.29 | 46% 44-51 (95) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 57.8¢ | $5.7K | $5.8K | -$28.85 | 59% 13928-9661 (23589) |
SH Shimi1234CTR | Overavg 42.8¢ | $5.0K | $4.8K | -$210.29 | 40% 69-104 (173) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 42.4¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$19.52 | 68% 31167-14971 (46138) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 42.5¢ | $850 | $840 | -$10 | 58% 31667-22925 (54592) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 41.9¢ | $748.77 | $750.54 | +$1.77 | 50% 8808-8746 (17554) |
SA Saber-greed<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $51.22 | $51.22 | -$0 | 59% 2264-1576 (3840) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $37.72 | $37.26 | -$0.46 | 61% 4538-2871 (7409) |
Invested
$15,881.99
Value
$15.7K
PnL
-$147.29
Record
46%
44-51 (95)
Invested
$5,744.79
Value
$5.8K
PnL
-$28.85
Record
59%
13928-9661 (23589)
Invested
$5,000
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$210.29
Record
40%
69-104 (173)
Invested
$1,933.88
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$19.52
Record
68%
31167-14971 (46138)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$850
Value
$840
PnL
-$10
Record
58%
31667-22925 (54592)
Invested
$748.77
Value
$750.54
PnL
+$1.77
Record
50%
8808-8746 (17554)
Invested
$51.22
Value
$51.22
PnL
-$0
Record
59%
2264-1576 (3840)
Invested
$37.72
Value
$37.26
PnL
-$0.46
Record
61%
4538-2871 (7409)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.