Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 47¢ · $915 held · ended Oct 25

Yes54¢No46¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$914.62

Combined PnL

$12.37

Smart Money Entry

41.7¢ → 46.5¢

+11% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes54%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$736.36

Total Shares1,726

Combined PnL+$14.42

Yes2 traders

Total Value$47.21

Total Shares84

Combined PnL-$2.05

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 41.6¢	$725.63	$637.5	+$12.4	58% 31667-22925 (54592)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$127.62	$131.06	+$1.59	54% 13815-11594 (25409)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59¢	$69.62	$67.26	-$0.59
└ No leg	Noavg 40¢	$58	$63.8	+$2.18
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 58.7¢	$41.85	$39.93	-$1.92	53% 1871-1637 (3508)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Noavg 43.9¢	$32.89	$33.38	+$0.48	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$26.04	$27.28	+$1.24	53% 13578-12019 (25597)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$27.52	$27.2	-$0.32	61% 4538-2871 (7409)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 41.6¢	$10.39	$11	+$0.61	58% 1472-1088 (2560)
0xheavy888<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$7.41	$7.28	-$0.13	56% 6357-5092 (11449)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$725.63

Value

$637.5

PnL

+$12.4

Record

58%

31667-22925 (54592)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$127.62

Value

$131.06

PnL

+$1.59

Record

54%

13815-11594 (25409)

Both legs:

Yes$69.6259¢-$0.59

No$5840¢+$2.18

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.85

Value

$39.93

PnL

-$1.92

Record

53%

1871-1637 (3508)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Invested

$32.89

Value

$33.38

PnL

+$0.48

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$26.04

Value

$27.28

PnL

+$1.24

Record

53%

13578-12019 (25597)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Invested

$27.52

Value

$27.2

PnL

-$0.32

Record

61%

4538-2871 (7409)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$10.39

Value

$11

PnL

+$0.61

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

0xheavy888<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.41

Value

$7.28

PnL

-$0.13

Record

56%

6357-5092 (11449)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.