Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-10-25?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 58¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$1.3K
-$8.29
58.1¢ → 58¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 58%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ComingBack | Noavg 58¢ | $1,000 | $1,000 | +$0 | 62% 3694-2243 (5937) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 58.9¢ | $223.66 | $215.34 | -$8.32 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 56.5¢ | $79.97 | $82.12 | +$0.03 | 54% 13809-11592 (25401) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.