Athletic Club vs. Getafe CF: O/U 6.5

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 100¢ · $100K held · ended Oct 25

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 25%

Total Value

$99.9K

Combined PnL

-$417.71

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$99.9K

Total Shares100,115

Combined PnL-$379.33

Over3 traders

Total Value$55.7

Total Shares22,835

Combined PnL-$38.38

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL alohaa	Underavg 99.9¢	$100.0K	$99.9K	-$379.33	64% 856-483 (1339)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 0.2¢	$40.11	$50.14	+$10.04	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 2¢	$41.39	$4.15	-$37.24	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 1.8¢	$12.59	$1.41	-$11.18	50% 7761-7812 (15573)

alohaa

Under

Invested

$99,993.45

Value

$99.9K

PnL

-$379.33

Record

64%

856-483 (1339)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$40.11

Value

$50.14

PnL

+$10.04

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.39

Value

$4.15

PnL

-$37.24

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.59

Value

$1.41

PnL

-$11.18

Record

50%

7761-7812 (15573)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.