Athletic Club vs. Getafe CF: O/U 4.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 94¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 83%
1 arb excluded
$4.4K
$289.26
80.2¢ → 93.5¢
+17% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 94%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 80.1¢ | $2.8K | $3.2K | +$318.86 | 52% 16273-14816 (31089) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 22¢ | $567.63 | $529.07 | -$38.56 | 55% 43532-35822 (79354) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Underavg 78.7¢ | $480.87 | $467.76 | -$13.11 | 68% 31121-14960 (46081) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 78.7¢ | $390.04 | $369.07 | -$20.97 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 23.5¢ | $90.83 | $98.69 | +$7.86 | |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 79¢ | $131.76 | $135.93 | +$4.17 | 50% 8804-8737 (17541) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 90.4¢ | $66.92 | $66.6 | -$0.32 | 54% 13813-11594 (25407) |
MI MinevaJ<$100 | Underavg 75¢ | $15.13 | $16.2 | +$3.05 | 57% 881-656 (1537) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 74¢ | $9.48 | $11.53 | +$2.05 | 50% 7759-7812 (15571) |
Invested
$2,849.57
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$318.86
Record
52%
16273-14816 (31089)
RN1CTRInvested
$567.63
Value
$529.07
PnL
-$38.56
Record
55%
43532-35822 (79354)
Invested
$480.87
Value
$467.76
PnL
-$13.11
Record
68%
31121-14960 (46081)
Both legs:
Invested
$131.76
Value
$135.93
PnL
+$4.17
Record
50%
8804-8737 (17541)
Invested
$66.92
Value
$66.6
PnL
-$0.32
Record
54%
13813-11594 (25407)
Invested
$15.13
Value
$16.2
PnL
+$3.05
Record
57%
881-656 (1537)
Invested
$9.48
Value
$11.53
PnL
+$2.05
Record
50%
7759-7812 (15571)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.