Athletic Club vs. Getafe CF: O/U 3.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 76¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25

Over25¢Under75¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$623.1

Smart Money Entry

65.2¢ → 75.5¢

+16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over25%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares5,458

Combined PnL+$341.8

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares5,457

Combined PnL+$281.3

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 65.8¢	$3.5K	$3.7K	+$252.95	52% 16273-14816 (31089)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Overavg 26.4¢	$620.48	$964.59	+$344.11	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 25¢	$750	$690	-$60	58% 31660-22917 (54577)
MI MinevaJ	Underavg 58¢	$272.07	$361.27	+$89.19	57% 881-656 (1537)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 52¢	$97.22	$81.27	-$15.95	55% 43532-35822 (79354)
└ Under leg	Underavg 59.7¢	$43.57	$52.9	+$9.33
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$53.65	$28.37	-$25.28
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 75¢	$77.49	$79.56	+$2.07	58% 1463-1078 (2541)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 24.1¢	$46.65	$44.58	-$2.07	50% 7759-7812 (15571)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$39.1	$39.82	+$0.72	56% 2027-1581 (3608)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 59.8¢	$33.47	$31.06	-$2.41	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 24¢	$29.28	$28.06	-$1.22	54% 13813-11594 (25407)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$1.74	$1.6	-$0.24	71% 17592-7139 (24731)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$3,468.63

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$252.95

Record

52%

16273-14816 (31089)

UpTheBluesCTR

Over

Invested

$620.48

Value

$964.59

PnL

+$344.11

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$750

Value

$690

PnL

-$60

Record

58%

31660-22917 (54577)

MinevaJ

Under

Invested

$272.07

Value

$361.27

PnL

+$89.19

Record

57%

881-656 (1537)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$97.22

Value

$81.27

PnL

-$15.95

Record

55%

43532-35822 (79354)

Both legs:

Under$43.5759.7¢+$9.33

Over$53.6552¢-$25.28

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$77.49

Value

$79.56

PnL

+$2.07

Record

58%

1463-1078 (2541)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$46.65

Value

$44.58

PnL

-$2.07

Record

50%

7759-7812 (15571)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.1

Value

$39.82

PnL

+$0.72

Record

56%

2027-1581 (3608)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$33.47

Value

$31.06

PnL

-$2.41

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.28

Value

$28.06

PnL

-$1.22

Record

54%

13813-11594 (25407)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.74

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$0.24

Record

71%

17592-7139 (24731)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.