Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (57%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Athletic Club vs. Getafe CF: O/U 2.5

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 43¢ · $963 held · ends Oct 25

Over43¢Under57¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 83%

Total Value

$963.13

Combined PnL

$51.17

Smart Money Entry

40.9¢ → 42.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 43%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over43%

Under57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$960.01

Total Shares2,143

Combined PnL+$51.14

Under1 trader

Total Value$3.12

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.03

Over — 83%Under — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 41¢	$615	$652.5	+$37.5	58% 31395-22700 (54095)
CA CannaeCTR	Overavg 40¢	$109.45	$114.84	+$5.39	53% 13553-11995 (25548)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$61.5	$65.25	+$3.75	68% 30779-14814 (45593)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$61.5	$65.25	+$3.75	54% 13697-11517 (25214)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$61.42	$62.17	+$0.75	52% 16158-14689 (30847)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 58¢	$3.1	$3.12	+$0.03	49% 10947-11320 (22267)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$615

Value

$652.5

PnL

+$37.5

Record

58%

31395-22700 (54095)

CannaeCTR

Over

Invested

$109.45

Value

$114.84

PnL

+$5.39

Record

53%

13553-11995 (25548)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$61.5

Value

$65.25

PnL

+$3.75

Record

68%

30779-14814 (45593)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$61.5

Value

$65.25

PnL

+$3.75

Record

54%

13697-11517 (25214)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$61.42

Value

$62.17

PnL

+$0.75

Record

52%

16158-14689 (30847)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$3.1

Value

$3.12

PnL

+$0.03

Record

49%

10947-11320 (22267)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 43%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.