Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Athletic Club vs. Getafe CF: O/U 1.5

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$30.96

Smart Money Entry

26.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares10,823

Combined PnL+$32.88

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,513

Combined PnL-$63.84

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 30.5¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$31.9	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
RN1CTR	Underavg 12¢	$272.73	$681.82	+$409.09	55% 43532-35822 (79354)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 79.5¢	$666.2	$633.1	-$33.1	52% 16273-14816 (31089)
CoinTrick	Overavg 99.9¢	$629.06	$629.38	+$0.31	98% 2411-60 (2471)
ReformedxCTR	Underavg 29¢	$580	$600	-$350	52% 710-648 (1358)
MI MinevaJARB<$100	Overavg 85.4¢	$346.24	$310.02	+$14.81	57% 881-656 (1537)
└ Over leg	Overavg 85.4¢	$256.98	$210.67	-$44.79
└ Under leg	Underavg 12¢	$39.74	$99.34	+$59.61
ZaiZoiBele	Overavg 98.2¢	$107.99	$76.99	-$31	81% 4105-977 (5082)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$46.73	$50.07	+$3.34	50% 8804-8737 (17541)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$35.4	$35.4	+$0	54% 13813-11594 (25407)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$12.07	$12.07	-$0	53% 13578-12019 (25597)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$7.4	$8.22	+$0.82	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 15¢	$1.53	$3.06	+$1.53	58% 1463-1078 (2541)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 73¢	$1.52	$1.46	-$0.05	71% 17592-7139 (24731)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$1,888.28

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$31.9

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$272.73

Value

$681.82

PnL

+$409.09

Record

55%

43532-35822 (79354)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$666.2

Value

$633.1

PnL

-$33.1

Record

52%

16273-14816 (31089)

CoinTrick

Over

Invested

$629.06

Value

$629.38

PnL

+$0.31

Record

98%

2411-60 (2471)

ReformedxCTR

Under

Invested

$580

Value

$600

PnL

-$350

Record

52%

710-648 (1358)

MinevaJARB<$100

Over

Invested

$346.24

Value

$310.02

PnL

+$14.81

Record

57%

881-656 (1537)

Both legs:

Over$256.9885.4¢-$44.79

Under$39.7412¢+$59.61

ZaiZoiBele

Over

Invested

$107.99

Value

$76.99

PnL

-$31

Record

81%

4105-977 (5082)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$46.73

Value

$50.07

PnL

+$3.34

Record

50%

8804-8737 (17541)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.4

Value

$35.4

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

13813-11594 (25407)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.07

Value

$12.07

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

13578-12019 (25597)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.4

Value

$8.22

PnL

+$0.82

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.53

Value

$3.06

PnL

+$1.53

Record

58%

1463-1078 (2541)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$1.52

Value

$1.46

PnL

-$0.05

Record

71%

17592-7139 (24731)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.