Athletic Club vs. Getafe CF: O/U 0.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 92¢ · $509 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 75%
$509.01
-$0.04
91.9¢ → 92¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 92%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI MinevaJ | Overavg 92¢ | $467 | $467 | +$0 | 57% 881-656 (1537) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 91¢ | $37.31 | $37.31 | +$0 | 54% 13813-11594 (25407) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 8¢ | $2.8 | $2.8 | -$0 | 55% 43532-35822 (79354) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Overavg 93¢ | $1.91 | $1.89 | -$0.04 | 71% 17592-7139 (24731) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.