Spread: Athletic Club (-1.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Athletic Club (67%) · Athletic Club at 79¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Athletic Club79¢Getafe CF21¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Athletic Club

Consensus Traders

Athletic Club 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$357.29

Smart Money Entry

54.8¢ → 78.5¢

+43% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralAthletic Club at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Athletic Club

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Athletic Club79%

Getafe CF22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Athletic Club6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,394

Combined PnL+$299.3

Getafe CF3 traders

Total Value$261.99

Total Shares735

Combined PnL+$58

Athletic Club — 67%Getafe CF — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Athletic Clubavg 39.2¢	$666.76	$926.56	+$259.8	52% 16273-14816 (31089)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Athletic Clubavg 67¢	$670	$815	+$145	51% 979-932 (1911)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Getafe CFavg 65.4¢	$666.25	$669.25	+$3	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
└ Getafe CF leg	Getafe CFavg 65.4¢	$474.55	$485.88	+$11.33
└ Athletic Club leg	Athletic Clubavg 34.5¢	$191.7	$183.36	-$8.34
MI MinevaJCTR	Getafe CFavg 46.3¢	$112.93	$163.48	+$50.55	57% 881-656 (1537)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Getafe CFavg 17¢	$80.81	$87.94	+$7.13	56% 2027-1581 (3608)
OM omnibus-076daa	Athletic Clubavg 51¢	$102	$66	-$36	59% 13895-9640 (23535)
SN SnakeBall	Athletic Clubavg 81¢	$133.65	$54.45	-$79.2	50% 8804-8737 (17541)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Getafe CFavg 66¢	$51.81	$51.34	+$0.87	54% 13813-11594 (25407)
└ Getafe CF leg	Getafe CFavg 66¢	$31.02	$30.55	-$0.71
└ Athletic Club leg	Athletic Clubavg 33¢	$20.79	$20.79	+$1.58
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Athletic Clubavg 51¢	$13.88	$20.05	+$6.16	65% 12547-6671 (19218)
HRTrading<$100	Athletic Clubavg 40.5¢	$7.1	$10.64	+$3.54	58% 1463-1078 (2541)
RN1CTR<$100	Getafe CFavg 65¢	$10.25	$10.57	+$0.32	55% 43532-35822 (79354)

GoalLineGhost

Athletic Club

Invested

$666.76

Value

$926.56

PnL

+$259.8

Record

52%

16273-14816 (31089)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Athletic Club

Invested

$670

Value

$815

PnL

+$145

Record

51%

979-932 (1911)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Getafe CF

Invested

$666.25

Value

$669.25

PnL

+$3

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

Both legs:

Getafe CF$474.5565.4¢+$11.33

Athletic Club$191.734.5¢-$8.34

MinevaJCTR

Getafe CF

Invested

$112.93

Value

$163.48

PnL

+$50.55

Record

57%

881-656 (1537)

Anon455CTR<$100

Getafe CF

Invested

$80.81

Value

$87.94

PnL

+$7.13

Record

56%

2027-1581 (3608)

omnibus-076daa

Athletic Club

Invested

$102

Value

$66

PnL

-$36

Record

59%

13895-9640 (23535)

SnakeBall

Athletic Club

Invested

$133.65

Value

$54.45

PnL

-$79.2

Record

50%

8804-8737 (17541)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Getafe CF

Invested

$51.81

Value

$51.34

PnL

+$0.87

Record

54%

13813-11594 (25407)

Both legs:

Getafe CF$31.0266¢-$0.71

Athletic Club$20.7933¢+$1.58

Lilybaeum<$100

Athletic Club

Invested

$13.88

Value

$20.05

PnL

+$6.16

Record

65%

12547-6671 (19218)

HRTrading<$100

Athletic Club

Invested

$7.1

Value

$10.64

PnL

+$3.54

Record

58%

1463-1078 (2541)

RN1CTR<$100

Getafe CF

Invested

$10.25

Value

$10.57

PnL

+$0.32

Record

55%

43532-35822 (79354)

Research grade

NeutralAthletic Club at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Athletic Club

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Athletic Club wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.