Will Getafe CF win on 2026-10-25?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 88¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$5.1K
-$41.7
86.9¢ → 87.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae | Noavg 86.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | -$31.22 | 53% 13553-11995 (25548) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 86.8¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$16.98 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 13¢ | $197 | $212.15 | +$15.15 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 15.4¢ | $146.32 | $123.72 | -$8.33 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
JI jiafanCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $28 | $28 | +$0 | 61% 1297-825 (2122) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $1.67 | $1.21 | -$0.32 | 55% 3765-3123 (6888) |
Invested
$2,981.95
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$31.22
Record
53%
13553-11995 (25548)
Invested
$1,841.47
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$16.98
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
Invested
$197
Value
$212.15
PnL
+$15.15
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$146.32
Value
$123.72
PnL
-$8.33
Record
58%
31395-22700 (54095)
Invested
$28
Value
$28
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
1297-825 (2122)
Invested
$1.67
Value
$1.21
PnL
-$0.32
Record
55%
3765-3123 (6888)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.